Jobs Day
I'm expecting -180k after the improved jobless claims figures on Thursday. The BLS surveys are normally compiled during the 3rd week of the month so I might be a bit optimistic, especially since the Government is being Scrooge this year and not playing the part of Santa Claus, but I'm sticking with -180k.
The charts below are a reminder though that the important data is out in a few weeks from the Treasury department as they do show real income and tax dollars which are always better than surveys. As we've showed previously, the chart below left shows that real data can lead surveys by 2 years.
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-180k expected from yours truly.
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We are headed in the right direction and will see net monthly job creation shortly. Shortly may mean 2 or 3 months but that is a short period of time pre ADD.
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The Fed knows that trying to guesstimate NFP to the actual figure (in thousands) in a country of 310m people is crazy. Therefore they follow the unemployment rate and they won't be altering policy until we've hit rock-bottom and start heading in the right direction.
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We can't forget about Canada at 7am est. Sometimes it does act as a leading indicator for the US NFP. Expect improvement but we are certainly coming off the rock-bottom levels from just a few months ago.
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For those hardy souls still paying close attention to the economic calendar late on Friday afternoon the Sep. Consumer Credit report is released from the Fed. Expectations are for an improvement and as the chart below shows, our economy over the last decade has been fueled by easy credit to facilitate consumption. Is that correlation going to change in the years ahead as credit becomes harder to access? So far, contrary to popular belief, that answer is No as the chart shows the correlation remains strong and the GDP reports show that our economy remains 71% dependant on consumption.
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