Jobs Week
7.2m: Jobs have been lost in the US since the beginning of 2008 per the BLS.
4.1m: Jobs lost in 2009 so far.
3.1m: Jobs lost in 2008.
7.9m: Jobs created from 2003 - 2007. (so a lost decade?)
2.3m: Jobs were lost during 2001-2002 recession.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (k) |
|
|
Services |
Goods Producing |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2008 |
Initial |
|
116,099 |
21,981 |
|
Ending |
|
114,542 |
20,532 |
|
Change |
|
(1,557) |
(1,449) |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 |
Initial |
|
114,206 |
20,127 |
|
Ending |
|
112,482 |
18,465 |
|
Change |
|
(1,724) |
(1,662) |
Note the tables were last updated earlier this year by the BLS and have been revised downward since, but the trends remain the same. Although the recession stems from the credit crises the job losses have been basically evenly spread between services and manufacturing.
|
| |
|
|
|
Services |
|
|
|
|
| |
Education |
Financial Svcs |
Health |
Info. Svcs |
Leisure |
Real Estate |
Retail |
Transportation |
| 2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Initial |
2,991 |
8,229 |
13,140 |
3,022 |
13,534 |
2,159 |
15,572 |
4,554 |
| Ending |
3,063 |
8,010 |
13,476 |
2,940 |
13,304 |
2,086 |
15,038 |
4,390 |
| Change |
72 |
(219) |
336 |
(82) |
(230) |
(74) |
(534) |
(165) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Initial |
3,088 |
7,954 |
13,490 |
2,924 |
13,268 |
2,063 |
14,992 |
4,354 |
| Ending |
3,059 |
7,702 |
13,671 |
2,826 |
13,154 |
1,981 |
14,700 |
4,178 |
| Change |
(29) |
(252) |
181 |
(98) |
(114) |
(82) |
(292) |
(176) |
In Service jobs in the US only Health Care has been able to consistently create jobs the last 2 years. Both retail and the financial services have been obviously hit hard while Leisure, which was creating jobs by the thousands mid-decade, has been ridding jobs quickly ever since.
|
| |
Goods |
|
|
Gov't |
| |
Mfg. |
Construction |
|
Gov't |
| 2008 |
|
|
|
|
| Initial |
13,744 |
7,849 |
|
22,391 |
| Ending |
12,902 |
6,841 |
|
22,532 |
| Change |
(842) |
(1,008) |
|
141 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| 2009 |
|
|
|
|
| Initial |
12,640 |
6,706 |
|
22,540 |
| Ending |
11,719 |
6,038 |
|
22,403 |
| Change |
(921) |
(668) |
|
(137) |
Obvious job losses in the Goods & Construction sectors. A surprise to some will be the jobs in Government, or the lack of any job creation so far. Perception may be that jobs are being created by the thousands but the opposite has been true so far. Obama has actually tightened spending in this sector while his predecessor was spending to the end.
|
More all week on the jobs. It's not all bad though, in fact the table below shows expansion in the global economy which may mean the end of job losses.
|
|
Oct. PMI |
|
Oct. Service PMI expected |
| Germany |
51 |
|
50.9 |
|
|
| EU |
50.7 |
|
52.3 |
|
|
| UK |
53.7 |
|
55.5 |
|
|
| US |
55.7 |
|
51.5 |
|
|
PMI week continues. All the mfg. based PMI's seem to have surprised to the upside, now will the Service level PMI's do the same?
|
We've seen the RBA and now they start to accumulate data for their next decision. They (very much likely) had the September's retail trade data so its impact on the markets may be minimal but still noteworthy. The question going forward will be if the participation rate continues to decline will retail sales be able to remain resilient? To be seen.
|
Remember our discussion a few days back on "yo-yo" central bank management; the FOMC falls into that discussion as well. That said there is no chance that they will hike rates today. Similar to the RBA, it's all about the Statement.
|
|
