Trade
Wednesday eyes the release of the latest Trade Balances figures in some of the largest G7 countries. These releases should be viewed as a signal for signs of real economic activity and the prospects of longevity of the current global economic recovery.
First in Australia. Last year's Surplus is long gone and that is a good signal for economic growth:
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Australia
Still it has only been a few months of recovery of increased Exports and Imports in Australia. We'll need to see this trend continue to have confidence in not just the recovery down-under but also for the prospects of Gold, Copper and all the rest.
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Similarly in the UK we've seen a few months of turn-arond in Goods imports and exports but we'll need to see legs to continue the confidence in the global economic recovery.
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In Germany the opposite generally holds true as a Trade Surplus is the norm. One can see that in late 2007 and/or early 2008 EURUSD was no longer a lagging indicator and was it any coincidence that German trade suffered afterwards? Now EURUSD is leading again which does not bode well if history has anything to say.
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